Peace at a Price: The Risks and Rewards of Crown Prince MBS's Pursuit of a Saudi-Israeli Deal

Risks and Rewards of Crown Prince MBS's Pursuit of a Saudi-Israeli Deal

Political risk, and the danger of assassination, are something with which Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the effective ruler of Saudi Arabia, is familiar. He has told US lawmakers that he believes he is in such danger because he attempts to broker a grand bargain normalizing Saudi relations with Israel.

Historical Context and Risks

MBS referenced the assassination of Anwar Sadat, the former Egyptian president who was killed after making peace with Israel, asking what protections were in place for Sadat and how if there weren’t any, could he do a deal like that now. Beyond a reluctance to put his security into the hands of others, MBS has stated that any pact with Israel that he would be party to would need to deliver a Palestinian state. (It also matters more broadly, given that under the auspices of Kushner’s plan, one would have to first redefine the contours of what exactly constitutes a Palestinian state.) His insistence on both points will have only increased in recent weeks.

Details of the Proposed Deal

MBS, often referred to by his initials MBS and who spoke at the Future Investment Initiative conference in Saudi Arabia on Thursday, seems a willful leader seeking to close this historic transaction despite major hurdles that multiple sources familiar with these negotiations—who include one former US official—say are very clear. These have been called "serious and strategic" talks, an indication the crown prince sees this potential pact as fundamental to the future of Saudi Arabia. Parts of the mostly classified agreement were first reported by others and consist of U.S. pledges to Saudi Arabia like security assurances that would come through a treaty, backing for a civilian nuclear program as well as huge economic payouts in terms of technology transfer and other fields

Challenges with Israeli Diplomacy

In return, Saudi Arabia is to reduce its trade and other relations with China in favor of entering into a full diplomatic relationship with Israel -- an enormous development based on their status as leaders of the Islamic world. A big problem for MBS, though is that the Israeli government insists (quite reasonably) on integrating a viable route to Palestinian statehood into any deal. He has pleaded with regional and American leaders that the Palestinian problem must be solved to save his legitimacy as the protector of Islam's holy shrines and ensure stability in the region.

Cynical Heuristics and the Pall of Strategic Duplicitousness

MBS one time saw their cause obituary for the Arabs but they now have been recast as existential. Such uncertainty has led some skeptical of his framing to view it as dangerous because, they argue, US officials will now be pushed to pressure Israel for better terms. As MBS's experience reveals, striking peace in the Middle East is treacherous business.

Diplomatic Hazards and Strategically Consequences

MBS is pointing out the life-threatening risk he was taking to pull this historic deal off. While that part of it is a powerful diplomatic maneuver, it also reflects the very real threats and political hurdles he faces. Pulling off peace in this high-conflict region is inherently risky, and the fact that we are right now also living through a dangerous time makes things all on their own worse. Or as veteran Middle East negotiator Dennis Ross put it, MBS is signaling that this was such a big deal he ''risked his life signing the deal''

The Israeli Arab Sister Who Changed the Saudi View on the Palestinian Issue

A senior official close to the Saudi rulers said Crown Prince Mohammed has told President Trump that his vision for peace is inextricably linked to resolving a single other -- the Israel-Palestinian conflict * whose fruits, he feels will be economic, technological and military *. But without addressing this root problem, the deal may not achieve regional security and stability. The remarks point to a nationalistic streak in MBS—whether or not he is truly concerned about the Palestinian cause, what matters most appears to be how it will affect Saudi Arabia's strategic interests.

Impact of Recent Conflict

The humanitarian situation in Gaza, where fighting broke out on October 7 with a Hamas attack from the enclave into Israel, has also muddied the waters. The resulting high casualty rate and popular rage across Arab nations have brought more scrutiny to bear on any accord seen as ignoring Palestinian rights. Otherwise, many of the main players continue to want to make a deal even if it's got to be altered.

Changing Negotiation Environment

Talks took place before the conflict began last month with Palestinian leaders over what those might be, but demands have spiked to call for an explicit and unequivocal pathway towards a Palestinian state that cannot be erased. MBS, for all his autocratic tendencies and responses to dissent in the kingdom, is sensitive about public opinion — particularly among younger Saudis who are deeply affected by this continuing war. With this demographic shift, addressing the aspirations of Palestinians has become a domestic imperative for Abdullah's government to maintain internal legitimacy and guard against opposition from hardline elements at home.

Israeli Opposition and the Politics of Resistance

Sides on the major points The attacks won Netanyahu and his right-wing coalition greater domestic and international sympathy while the leftist Labor party fell to a distant second in opinion polls among Israelis who favor conditions for peace that would include accepting the creation of an independent Palestinian state. Netanyahu's stance on this subject could be his Achilles' heel in the final round of direct talks as there is scant evidence that any outside pressure alone will force him to blink. On Sunday, Israeli officials conceded the talks were complex and that they would require certain conditions to be met to take effect.

Conclusion

While MBS's statements of vulnerability may serve as a spotlight to use in tender deals, they are additionally an impression of the real intricacies and risks engaged with seeking after such reform. We still do not know if this new tactic will work and actually lead Netanyahu to rethink his push. But arguably, even MBS and U.S. officials are now hoping that the broader gains achievable with this deal will at some point outweigh whatever understanding needs to be reached given today's political turmoil.